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Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season
Future start Starting this early.--Isaac829 02:17, September 16, 2012 (UTC) My predictions = 19 21 named storms, 12 13 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes. AndrewTalk To Me 02:57, September 16, 2012 (UTC) list would prob get up to lorena being a winter storm in hawaii :D 20:24, October 14, 2012 (UTC) :13-10-8. Outlook looking better and better. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 22:04, April 13, 2013 (UTC) :Season starting in a couple days :D --Isaac829 20:15, May 2, 2013 (UTC) :10 days till season starts.Isaac829 05:28, May 5, 2013 (UTC) Still thinking 14-18 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors, and 100 to 120% of median ACE values. Pretty average season overall. 'Ryan1000' 16:13, May 5, 2013 (UTC) October Yawn...well, here's EPac's last month to get a major (unless we pull a 2011 and get a Kenneth-like storm in November). 'Ryan1000' 01:40, October 1, 2013 (UTC) : Oh, and ACEwise, we're 50% of where we otherwise should be. Well, Atlantic is doing worse, 70% below average. 'Ryan1000' 23:48, October 1, 2013 (UTC) ::According to the NHC's September summary for this year's EPAC season, we are now the first hurricane season since 2003 to make it to October without a major hurricane. Wow. AndrewTalk To Me 11:42, October 2, 2013 (UTC) 14E.NARDA AOI:South of Mexico Another one...10% for 2 days and 20% for 5. I doubt it'll develop, due to limited favorable conditions ahead of it. And even if it does, I hope we get a major out of this, and not another fail. 'Ryan1000' 17:16, October 2, 2013 (UTC) : I seriously doubt we will see anything come out of this AOI, but if it ever does develop, then it will be yet another fail. It's not going to become a major, that's for sure.[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] [[Message Wall:Steven09876 #top|''T]] | 23:00, October 2, 2013 (UTC) : If it develop because it might it will be another td or mid grade ts.I am sorry Ryan but models are not showing a favorable enviroment in the Epac for the next 10 to 11 days.I doubt we get a major now the Epac door is cloosing.We might get a Kenneth but with 2013 style I doubt it.Allanjeffs 19:55, October 4, 2013 (UTC) : It's up to 20% (in the next 48 hours). This has been lingering over the past few days without much development, and I don't think we will see Narda from this. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 17:40, October 5, 2013 (UTC) 93E.INVEST This AOI has been invested. For the next five days, it now has a 40% chance of becoming tropical. It also looks much better organized. AndrewTalk To Me 11:23, October 6, 2013 (UTC) Another fail that will probably only reach ts status and then weaken.Allanjeffs 15:04, October 6, 2013 (UTC) Up to 60% here comes Narda.Allanjeffs 18:22, October 6, 2013 (UTC) invest_RENUMBER_ep932013_ep142013.renAllanjeffs 19:39, October 6, 2013 (UTC) ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬(ஜ۩۞۩ஜ)▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ ＳＨＵＴ　ＵＰ　ＡＮＤ　ＥＮＪＯＹ　ＴＨＥ　NADACANE！ ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬(ஜ۩۞۩ஜ)▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬﻿ Lol, jk. I'm sure this will be a C2 Kenneth. Anyway, the last storm will be Octave or Priscilla. Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 20:41, October 6, 2013 (UTC) Now td 14EAllanjeffs 20:41, October 6, 2013 (UTC) THIS IS NADA!!! (plays Sparta remix) Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 20:43, October 6, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Woot! Expected to be a TS only?!!? Well, a Kenneth-y style path is projected tho :o Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 20:43, October 6, 2013 (UTC) Eh, forecast to be another weaking TS. Here comes Narda..or should I say, Nada. Ryan1000 20:47, October 6, 2013 (UTC) (edit conflict) Geez Liz, is all that format text really necessary? Anyway, this storm is officially TD 14-E per NHC. 30 kts/1007 mbar per the debut advisory. The forecast peak is higher than I expected, at 60 kts. I doubt we'll see our first Western Hemisphere major from future Narda, but the EPAC season's eighth hurricane might not be so out of the question after all. Then again, this is 2013... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:48, October 6, 2013 (UTC) :: Lol, I was just feeling full of beans today! Talking about beans, I can find many words that rhyme with bean! Lean, mean, bean, spleen, unclean. Anyway, I'm pretty sure the NadaNadaNadaCane will attain at least a C1. I think this will be a 2013 surprise (Nadacane will think this is 2011 btw) and bounce as a MASSIVE, I mean MASSIVE C3. JMO though! Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 20:51, October 6, 2013 (UTC) :: Our eight hurricane of the season will form from this,but don`t expèct nothing more than a cat 1 or 2 at most.Allanjeffs 21:14, October 6, 2013 (UTC) :::The NHC take this depression to 60 knots (70 mph). For all you know, the depression could easily blow up, but becoming a hurricane should be decent enough. AndrewTalk To Me 21:18, October 6, 2013 (UTC) ::::It's a depression already?! Looks like this has a shot at hurricane status, and i really hope this becomes a hurricane. I'm tired of seeing failure storms. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 01:08, October 7, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Narda Should reach hurricane strength, continuing the trend of C1 spam.--Isaac829 02:38, October 7, 2013 (UTC) Don`t understand you Steven?Manuel was a cat 1 Narda should be a cat 1 too.Allanjeffs 04:03, October 7, 2013 (UTC) :Isaac, considering the fact that we have only had 9 hurricanes between both the EPAC and Atlantic so far this year, and it was a month-long barrage of weak TSs between Henriette and Manuel, you should be more grateful than that. Anyway, Narda is up to 40 kts/1003 mbar and is expected to peak at 70 kts. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 10:46, October 7, 2013 (UTC) :::NADACANE IS GONNA BE 85MPH WOOOOO Nadaberto, much? Let the hurricane shipping begin... Narda nada whatever you call it (lol) is the humberto of the pacific. NardaXHumberto lol. Isn't it weird that pinapples never wear bikinis? NOT REALLY! 20:03, October 7, 2013 (UTC) ::::Narda is at 55 kts/998 mbar right now. Forecast to peak at 75 kts, as Liz stated above. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:09, October 7, 2013 (UTC) ::::Dry air is entering Narda this might cause some complications.Allanjeffs 20:30, October 7, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Well, hopefully it can make it to a hurricane. If Narda becomes a 'cane, it'll make for 8 hurricanes in EPac, which is pretty near-normal, but still no majors. We typically have 5 per year in the EPac, 3 or 4 by this time of year. Ryan1000 21:47, October 7, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Still at 55 kts/998 mbar per ATCF. I predict that Narda will peak here. That's what we get for putting our faith in a 2013 storm, guys... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:32, October 8, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Dry air and stable air have reach Narda sooner than thought.Allanjeffs 12:41, October 8, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Yep. Sadly this is what we get in the Western Hemisphere in 2013. Tropical storm a weak hurricane spam. 2014 will be better. Simlover123' ' 01:59, October 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::50 kts/999 mbar. ...NARDA WEAKENS AND NO LONGER FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE... That's 2013 for ya. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 10:53, October 8, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::What should have been Henriette's sister is now collapsing! I will be watching the WPAC right now... AndrewTalk To Me 11:05, October 8, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::::Sigh...anothr failure. And 2013 has struck again... Ryan1000 12:36, October 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::::Down to 35 kts/1007 mbar per ATCF. This image sums up Karen and Narda perfectly. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 19:29, October 8, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::::::lol, trolololololololo! DAT FACE XD I defo agree! NADACANE fails!! Rubber bands last longer when they are refrigerated. 19:36, October 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::::::From the latest NHC discussion: "NARDA IS QUICKLY ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING NADA." Forecaster Blake, I love you. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:43, October 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::::::::Lol I can imagine this being a meme! Lol!!! Nada LOL it rhymes xD Rubber bands last longer when they are refrigerated. 21:04, October 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::::::::Lol that NHC discussion post is pretty funny XD. Narda and Nada actually rhyme! But anyway, Narda was yet another failure that went 2013 style on us. We all thought this would become a hurricane at first, but now its weakening rapidly due to unfavorable conditions without ever becoming a hurricane. When will the Atlantic and the EPac stop feeding us all these little epic failure TS storms? I want another hurricane, for once. Especially in the Atlantic. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 23:27, October 8, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Narda Fail.--Isaac829 02:50, October 9, 2013 (UTC) :Narda's still producing convection. This just might be kept as a tropical cyclone when the 2pm advisory rolls in shortly. "Ah, ah, ah, ah, stayin' alive, stayin' alive..." --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:47, October 9, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of Narda It's dead. Hats off to another epic failure. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 22:18, October 10, 2013 (UTC) 15E.OCTAVE 94E.INVEST 20% for 2 days and 60% for 5. Looks like a prime one to explode if conditions remain favorable...major hurricane Octave anyone? (well, hopefully...) Ryan1000 20:17, October 8, 2013 (UTC) I hope so! Octave better end his 12-year wait well. AndrewTalk To Me 21:29, October 8, 2013 (UTC) This might be the last or one of the last time that the Epac can redeem itself.Allanjeffs 22:00, October 8, 2013 (UTC) : It might be now or never for EPac to get a major, I guess...If Octave-to be doesn't make it, I doubt we'll see a major at all here. Ryan1000 22:05, October 8, 2013 (UTC) :: Future-Octave looks like one of the best chances for a major so far this season. It is expected to enter increasingly favorable conditions, and by the end of the week, conditions might be prime for this AOI (or Octave) to explode. Major hurricane Octave anyone? Hopefully. We could see something big from this in the long term, and possibly our first (and most likely the only) major hurricane. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 23:34, October 8, 2013 (UTC) :::Favorable how? Right now I'm skeptical simply because it's 2013... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:10, October 9, 2013 (UTC) ::::A lot of the models take this into Baja California in a few days. Maybe we don't want this to explode... ::::...what the hell am I even saying?! Of course we want this to explode! We just want this to pull a Rick '09 and weaken until it's almost nothing before landfall, that's all. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:30, October 9, 2013 (UTC) :::::We don't want this to explode because we want to keep the idea of 2013 being the worst year ever. If the EPAC has a majorless season that'd be pretty good testament to how awful it's been. Yqt1001 (talk) 20:36, October 9, 2013 (UTC) :::::2013 will already be remember by many in Mexico because of Manuel.I don`t want this to explode and I am sorry Dylan I really want to this year without a major.Allanjeffs 20:52, October 9, 2013 (UTC) :::::::hereeee comes Octave!! im kinda imagining this storm to be like jova two years ago with a touch of RickRoll'09. Get it?!?! >:D Rubber bands last longer when they are refrigerated. 23:28, October 9, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::We've had 7 hurricanes thus far this year, "Octave" would be the 8th, hence it's prefix. Might not be a mjaor though. Ryan1000 00:12, October 10, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::99% of the models bring it at high-end ts or mid grade cat 1,-_- lol XD.not a major I see unless it does explosive intensification.Allanjeffs 00:18, October 10, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::I predict a peak of 45 kts. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:36, October 10, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::::It's down to 50% (48 hours) and 60% (5 days). While conditions remain favorable, this AOI is struggling. I don't think we will even see a hurricane out of this, and Dylan's prediction might come true. I predict a peak of around 50 kts. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 22:22, October 10, 2013 (UTC) (←)Now this invest should have a hard time even let alone getting numbered. It's chances of formation have fallen to 50% chance of developing. At the rate our season is going, we will be the third EPac season in history since the start of the satellite era in 1971 without a major, after 1977 and 2003. AndrewTalk To Me 11:54, October 12, 2013 (UTC) :Bam! A tropical depression might come after all! There is a 60% chance of formation in the next two and five days as organization improves. The window is small, but this invest can do it. AndrewTalk To Me 19:55, October 12, 2013 (UTC) ::Here comes Octave, but it will probably be yet another EPIC FAIL! [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 20:32, October 12, 2013 (UTC) ::TD 15 is now here by ATCF.Invest_RENUMBER_ep942013_ep152013.ren.Allanjeffs 00:58, October 13, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Its here.Allanjeffs 02:39, October 13, 2013 (UTC) :Currently at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h)/1003 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg), this depression is forecast to become 40 knots (45 mph) of failure per the NHC. Baja California could get something, but it will not be very significant. Man, 17 tropical storms and no major hurricanes? This is 1968 all over again! AndrewTalk To Me 02:51, October 13, 2013 (UTC) :You mean 15 right ? but make that sixteen as the next area near this one is expect to become tropical storm.Allanjeffs 03:00, October 13, 2013 (UTC) :::And the fail train goes on... Ryan1000 03:14, October 13, 2013 (UTC) ::::Ryan, it sure does. Allan, I counted Pewa and Unala in the tropical storm count above. AndrewTalk To Me 03:19, October 13, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Octave Now named, but...won't get much stronger. Ryan1000 10:53, October 13, 2013 (UTC) At 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h)/1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg), Octave should reach 45 knots (50 mph) per the NHC. If it gets any stronger, Baja California might need to watch out. AndrewTalk To Me 13:29, October 13, 2013 (UTC) Octave is here! We have yet another epic fail. C'mon EPac, stop it with the failings, and produce another hurricane for once! [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 22:04, October 13, 2013 (UTC) : I'll take back what I said above, since Octave is now up to 65 mph! That was unexpected. In fact, it now even has an outside shot at hurricane status now. Looks like it won't be an epic fail after all! [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 22:58, October 13, 2013 (UTC) ::Despite Octave's jump to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h)/995 mbar (hPa; 29.38 inHg) and developing an eye feature, the "eye" is so tinted it is disturbing any further progress of development. Sorry, Steven, Octave only has ~12 more hours to become a hurricane at all before shear takes over. AndrewTalk To Me 23:36, October 13, 2013 (UTC) ::::Looks like EPac is trying to, well, "not suck", which is better than failing, I'll say. Ryan1000 00:06, October 14, 2013 (UTC) :::::And the intensity plunges to 35 kts. Next! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:05, October 15, 2013 (UTC) :::::Scratch that, didn't check the map to find it was so close to the coast. Landfall is less than 12 hours away. Oopsie... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:08, October 15, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Octave Moving inland and dying. Most of Octave's moisture is being sheared away into upper Mexico and Texas. It shouldn't last much longer from here on out. Ryan1000 11:07, October 15, 2013 (UTC) :To sum it up, Octave was a cross-breed between Ivo, Juliette, and Kiko. It did come close to hurricane intensity, however. AndrewTalk To Me 11:10, October 15, 2013 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Hats off. Ryan1000 23:01, October 15, 2013 (UTC) : Unfortunately, Octave didn't become a hurricane. But it did bring some rain to Baja, so I'll say that it wasn't a complete fail (unlike Priscilla, which is such an epic fail). Hats off to Octave. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 00:05, October 16, 2013 (UTC) ::At least Octave tried, like Kiko. AndrewTalk To Me 11:39, October 16, 2013 (UTC) 16E.PRISCILLA AOI: Near Octave We have a new area of disturbed weather, but Tropical Depression Fifteen-E should inhibit any development in the coming days. It has a 10% chance of becoming tropical in the next two and five days. AndrewTalk To Me 03:19, October 13, 2013 (UTC) 95E.INVEST Invest an up to 20% here comes td sixteen.Allanjeffs 06:32, October 13, 2013 (UTC) : Not sure Allan, it's losing organization due to it's proximity to Octave. It might not develop at all, unless Octave moves away quickly. Ryan1000 10:56, October 13, 2013 (UTC) :I would rather have this AOI dissipate than become tropical. AndrewTalk To Me 13:29, October 13, 2013 (UTC) :Up to 30% this might become priscila before all is done.Allanjeffs 18:09, October 13, 2013 (UTC) ::I hope we don't see Priscilla from this, or it will probably be yet another fail. It's too close to Octave to become something strong. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 22:16, October 13, 2013 (UTC) ::::Are you sure? It's 60%.Isaac829 22:33, October 13, 2013 (UTC) :::::What the heck?! Looks like Priscilla is coming, probably this evening or tonight if trends continue. This is really organizing faster than I thought it would! [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 22:58, October 13, 2013 (UTC) :::::Yep should be another tropical storm or maybe a weak hurricane.Allanjeffs 00:02, October 14, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Priscilla She is here and to fail,even though I like the name.Allanjeffs 12:37, October 14, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Not bad, this'll make for 18 named storms (counting the two in CPac), but still no major hurricanes. Ryan1000 00:06, October 14, 2013 (UTC) And the fail train continues...16 named storms, 7 hurricanes but no majors. Again Allan, if the headers are sticking out like that, switch the editing format from visual mode to source mode to put it at the front of the page. Ryan1000 17:40, October 14, 2013 (UTC) Haha sorry Ryan I forgot will do it next ime :P.Allanjeffs 20:28, October 14, 2013 (UTC) : No prob, I can always fix it anyhow. At least the EPac had a decent number of named storms this year, the lackluster intensity of those storms is what makes it kinda boring though. But 2013 EPac season was definitely memorable, especially with Manuel swamping parts of Mexico and to a lesser extent, Flossie giving Hawaii a scare for the first time in two decades. Ryan1000 22:11, October 14, 2013 (UTC) ::It's weakening already, the hell? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:04, October 15, 2013 (UTC) ::Manuel was the only memorable thing,Priscilla was such a fail it has now start to weaken and will probably die tomorrow.2013 Atlantic and Epac has been really boring without majors to track.Almost the same as the Atlantic and the Epac should start to quiet down first than the Atlantic.If we don`t have another Kenneth it looks like the Epac will end without a major.Allanjeffs 03:30, October 15, 2013 (UTC) ::::We will be having an El Nino next year so EPac will most likely have a major to track by then, but the Atlantic might see another down year, unless it pulls a 1972, 1983, 1992, 1994 and gets a notable storm (or a 2004, unlikely though). Ryan1000 11:07, October 15, 2013 (UTC)\ :::Priscilla is the epic fail. It is only at 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h)/1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg) and should die from here on out. At least it looks somewhat somewhat decent on satellite imagery. AndrewTalk To Me 11:13, October 15, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Priscilla Another fish, another fail... Ryan1000 23:01, October 15, 2013 (UTC) Bye Priscilla. God, you were such an EPIC FAIL!!! I'm soo tired of these storms that do nothing but steal great and wonderful names from the list, and Priscilla was one of these. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876]] ''T'' | 00:10, October 16, 2013 (UTC) :Priscilla looks well-defined on satellite imagery, but it should degenerate in 36 hours. Hey, I'm fine with Priscilla failing miserably. The name Raymond is what I am worried about. The past two Raymond's were Category 4 hurricanes. If that trend bucks this year (Yeah, Ray, good luck even becoming a hurricane! Wait until 2019!), I will give up on the EPAC. AndrewTalk To Me 11:38, October 16, 2013 (UTC) ::If anyone looks at the NOAA satellites for Priscilla, you will find a very sad excuse of a tropical cyclone. The depression is at 25 knots (30 mph, 45 km/h)/1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg) and is expected to degenerate in 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 01:15, October 17, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of Priscilla Priscilla's miserable third EPAC life is over. Hopefully, it will do better in 2019. AndrewTalk To Me 11:16, October 17, 2013 (UTC) 96E.INVEST AOI.South of Guatemala Another one on the TWO. This is at 0% for now, but conditions could improve later on, and it's at 30% for 5 days. Raymond anyone? 'Ryan1000 18:56, October 17, 2013 (UTC) Yep will probably be Raymond but nothing that will be strong.Allanjeffs 20:42, October 17, 2013 (UTC) : I also think this will become Raymond. Well, according to Andrew's post above, the past two Raymond's were Category 4s. I hope that this year's "Raymond" becomes a major so it can continue the streak (as long as it doesn't affect land), but since this is 2013 I doubt that will happen. I predict this invest will peak at minimal hurricane strength (around 80 mph). [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 23:37, October 17, 2013 (UTC) ::Some slow development of this AOI is possible in the next several days. However, I want something decent from this system. In my opinion, the name Raymond is probably the most powerful name of this EPAC naming list. It was the name of a rare Hawaii-landfalling hurricane which peaked as a 125 knot Category 4 in 1983 and a Baja California landfaller in 1989 that also became a 125 knot Category 4 hurricane. Hopefully, Raymond can continue his luck and become a 125 knot system again, but he's going to have a real tough time this year doing so. AndrewTalk To Me 00:30, October 18, 2013 (UTC) :::Sorry folks, but since this is 2013, I'd say that Raymond will probably peak as a mid-grade TS. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:31, October 18, 2013 (UTC) 96E.INVEST Here comes Raymond but will be at most just a mid cat 1 but it might very well be a mid grade ts or strong ts like Octave as conditions have decay in the Epac.This is a strong name so I hope it doesn`t fail but there is always a first time.Allanjeffs 05:03, October 18, 2013 (UTC) :::Cat 1 and no more 80for peak or maybe 85mph. This was before the post above so check that one to see my thoughts in what is going to be Raymond.Allanjeffs 02:42, October 18, 2013 (UTC) :::::I don't expect this to intensify much knowing how this year as a whole has gone, but I hope it does get very strong so we finally have something good to track. Ryan1000 15:02, October 18, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Well, conditions should support some development of this invest, but I very highly doubt it will become the 125 knot Category 4 hurricane I want. Regardless, Invest 96E now has a 30% chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours and a 50% chance in the next five days. AndrewTalk To Me ! :::::::Invest 96E continues to gradually develop and organize. It now has a 40% chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours and a 60% chance in the next 120 hours as it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph. AndrewTalk To Me 02:03, October 19, 2013 (UTC) Eerie Comparison Okay, I know this section is slightly off-topic, but it relates to Eastern Pacific activity. Anyway, assuming 92E becomes a tropical storm and Mexico, I would just like to point out the following comparisons between 2007 and 2013 so far: *Both seasons had its first two storms form in May (and what is even creepier is that it is the same two names!) *Both seasons started off with a "Tropical Storm Alvin". *In both seasons, the storm named Alvin stayed out to sea. *In both seasons, the storm named Alvin reached a peak of 1003 mbar (however, the 2007 "Alvin" had peak winds of 40 mph, whereas the 2013 "Alvin" had peak winds of 50 mph). *In both seasons, the storm named Barbara formed in the last week of May. *In both seasons, the storm named Barbara made a landfall in Mexico. *Both seasons' third storm was a "Hurricane Cosme". If anyone has additional comparisons, or any comments and/or questions about the comparisons or even this section in general, please feel free to leave them below. AndrewTalk To Me 21:49, May 27, 2013 (UTC) : If only the Atlantic was in the same boat lol. We haven't even had Andrea yet there, but it's possible, according to GFS at ~284 hours, we could see Andrea pull a Barry '07. Ryan1000 00:26, May 28, 2013 (UTC) ::Barbara was a hurricane ................ YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 04:49, June 24, 2013 (UTC) :::I believe this comparison was made prior to Barbara even being named, so yeah. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 06:55, June 24, 2013 (UTC) :::No, I last updated my list when Barbara was a tropical storm. AndrewTalk To Me 17:59, June 24, 2013 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Now is the time to do this: *All - 0% - None of them are worth retiring. Isaac829 20:12, October 7, 2013 (UTC) Isaac, are you sure Manuel is not worth retiring? $925 million (2013 USD) and 84 deaths sounds like a candidate to me, even if Mexico never retires names. AndrewTalk To Me 11:07, October 8, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah, Manuel actually has a chance of retirement. The deaths and damage toll above, and also its flooding, make it a reasonable candidate for retirement. But if Mexico didn't retire Agatha, then Manuel could very well stay. EPac retirements can be completely random at times, and Mexico rarely retires names. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] [[Message Wall:Steven09876 #top|''T]] | 23:42, October 8, 2013 (UTC) ::Steven, Agatha was more Guatemala's problem than Mexico's. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:31, October 9, 2013 (UTC) :::Well, I just couldn't think of any better examples. :P What about Paul (1982) or Tico (1983)? Both of these hurricanes mainly affected Mexico and killed more than 100 people, but they weren't retired. Although most of Paul's deaths were in Guatemala and El Salvador when it devastated the countries as a tropical depression, it struck Mexico at peak intensity. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 22:36, October 10, 2013 (UTC) ::::Paul was likely snubbed because most of the impact occurred as a tropical depression. I am not sure why Tico did not go. Liza '76 is a good example of a storm that should have been retired. ~1,000 fatalities = out. AndrewTalk To Me 00:58, October 11, 2013 (UTC) ERMAHGERD!! My predictions. * Alvin? #No. WHAT A REAL CHIPMUNK lol * Barbara? #No. * Cosme #No. * Dalila? Hey there Dalila, hows it like near Mexico? A rather weak Category 1 not doing anything but spin fish? #NO. * Erick? #No. More to come... * flossie? Nah man * gill? Lazy fishy * HENRIETTE? Nah didn't do anything to Honolulu * pewa? Lol, no * uhnala? Uh, nala no. * Ivo? NAH MAN YOU FISH om nom nom * Juliette? TBA- you'd better please Romeo. Rara Hooves 20:28, July 4, 2013 (UTC) : I would personally still wait a little bit on this, unless Barbara turns out to be something big for Mexico. Ryan1000 01:05, May 29, 2013 (UTC) Now that we have a reasonable number of storms, I will post my predictions: #Alvin - 0% - Try again, Mr. Seville! #Barbara - 1% - Being the easternmost landfalling hurricane and causing four fatalities as well as $1 million (2013 USD) in damage is not enough, especially by Mexico's standards. #Cosme - 0.1% - Three fatalities will not convince Mexico to retire this name. #Dalila - 0.05% - The fact Dalila did not kill anyone hurts its chances. #Erick - 0.2% - 0.1% for the one fatality reported, the other 0.1% is to show my respect towards Erick for finally becoming a hurricane. #Flossie - 1% - Hawaii got a huge scare from the system, but it was not that bad at all in the end. #Gil - 0% - It did nothing special. #Henriette - 0% - Henriette may have broken our Category 1 streak, but it is staying. #Pewa - 0% - Similar to Unala, Tropical Depression Three-C, and Henriette, Pewa was a very interesting storm meteorologically, but impactwise, it should be long forgotten. #Unala - 0% - Unala was quite an interesting storm meteorologically. However, it became Pewa's lunch before doing anything. #Ivo - 0.01% - If previous serious storms to affect the Southwestern U.S. (Ignacio and Nora '97, Kathleen '76, Joanne '72, etc.) were not retired, Ivo should not. #Juliette - 0.01% - The lack of major impact from Juliette essentially means its staying. #Kiko - 0% - Despite how close it came to hurricane intensity, Kiko was a fail. #Lorena - 0.01% - See Juliette's section. #Manuel - 60% - This turned out to be quite the disaster in the end, coming back from the dead full force as a hurricane. Eighty-three fatalities and all that flash flooding makes it a likely retiree. If this storm hit the U.S., we would be looking at a storm with a 75 to 80 percent chance of retirement. #Narda - 0% - A complete fail. #Octave - 0.01% - See Juliette and Lorena's section. #Priscilla - 0% - An even worse fail than Narda. AndrewTalk To Me 17:20, July 9, 2013 (UTC) Here's my predictions! * Alvin - 0% - Hell no. * Barbara - 1% - 4 deaths and $1 million in damage ain't gonna do it. * Cosme - 0.5% - 3 deaths are not enough. * Dalila - 0% - Nope. * Erick - 0.6% - 0.5% for affecting Mexico, the other 0.1% is for Erick finally becoming a hurricane. * Flossie - 2% - Affected Hawaii, but it wasn't that bad. * Gil - 0% - Fishie. * Henriette - 0% - No. * Pewa - 0% - Didn't affect land. * Unala - 0% - Didn't do nothin'. Maybe cause Pewa ate this storm up for dinner. lol * Ivo - 0.5% - Not much impact, but it did bring a little moisture to my house as a remnant low. * Juliette - 0.1% - Romeo is mad at this failure. It just brought rain to Baja and nothing more. * Kiko - 0% - No land impacts. * Lorena - 0% - Another failure. * Manuel - 60% - Caused lots and lots of flooding in Mexico and a bunch of deaths, and I want it to be retired. But since Mexico rarely retires names, there is an outside shot that it will stay. * Narda - 0% - And, we have yet another epic fail... * Octave - 0.5% - Brought rain to Baja, but it won't be retired. * Priscilla - 0% - EPIC FAILURE!!! It has to be said. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 19:03, July 20, 2013 (UTC) ---- STO12's Predictions: *ALVIN: 0% No impact whatsoever, no retirement here. *BARBARA: 20% Not enough impact to Mexico to cause a retirement. *COSME: 5% Far from land impact, no retirement for Cosme. *DALILA: 5% A weak hurricane, but off the coast of any land mass, no retirement. *ERICK: 15% Caused some impact to the Mexican coast, but not enough of an impact to create a retirement. *FLOSSIE: 10% Caused rare but minimal impact to Hawaii. Flossie isn't really retirement worthy. *GIL: 0% Just another addition to our streak of cat 1's, far from land too. *HENRIETTE: 0% Was certainly impressive to see it do what it did. But no retirement is to be arranged. Hopefully Henriette will impress us just as much in 2019. *PEWA: 0% A rare hurricane, but no retirement expected. *UNALA: 0% A rare weak storm that caused no impact to land. *IVO: 5% A weak tropical storm with a lot of moisture. No large impact. [[User:STO12|'ST✪12']] 02:05, August 26, 2013 (UTC) ---- Ryan Grand Speaks: East Pacific: *Alvin - 0% - Sorry, which one was Alvin again? *Barbara - 4% - Deserves some respect for it's impacts in Mexico, but they hardly ever retire names... *Cosme - 1% - Caused indirect impacts due to it's massive size, but enough to retire? Nah. *Dalila - 1% - See Cosme. *Erick - 2% - 1% for the death, 1% for finally becoming a hurricane. *Flossie - 10% - Some impacts on Hawaii, but nothing too severe. *Gil - 0% - Turned out to be a fish. *Henriette - 0% - Became a cat. 2, but no impacts on land. *Ivo - 1% - No impacts on land while tropical, but the remnants did cause some impact in Arizona. *Juliette - 3% - Some impact to Baja, but not enough to retire. *Kiko - 0% - Impressed us with that little stint of intensification, but you know the drill. No impacts, no retirement. *Lorena - 1% - Flooded southern Baja a little, but definitely not enough to retire. *Manuel - 65% - Quite the flooding in Acapulco, even more in Sinaloa. Possibly 80-120 deaths, I think this could easily be retired...but Mexico has still been pretty poor on nominating, historically. *Narda - 0% - More like nada. *Octave - 10% - Probably not too severe. *Priscilla - 0% - I've heard of failures before, but this? Seriously? Central Pacific: *Pewa - 0% - Persisted longer than I thought, but nontheless, it stayed at sea. *Unala - 0% - Pewa ate her up. Those are my calls. Ryan1000 16:14, July 28, 2013 (UTC) I'm just gonna give every single storm 42%, because we have absolutely zero idea what the WMO will do in the EPAC. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:28, July 28, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah, some EPac retirements are completely random (Knut of 1987 taking the cake), but I hope the WMO is more serious with storms from now on. I could see Flossie getting retired if it is severe enough for Hawaii. Ryan1000 00:15, July 29, 2013 (UTC) ::I'm not so sure if Flossie will make landfall anymore because the NHC predicted for her to make landfall on a previous prediction, then she was predicted to veer north on the next prediction (but will still make landfall), and on the latest advisory image it looks like it will brush the state instead of making landfall. Jeffrey was here What's your iOS operating system? 06:43, July 29, 2013 (UTC) ::Alvin: 0% fish ::Barbara:2% death nor damage was enough ::Cosme:0% not effects in any place aside from waves ::Dalila: 0% She was one of the smallest tc in the Epac and his bro Cosme was one of the biggest aside from that nothing at all. ::Erick 0% nop another fish ::Flossie:5% damage in Hawaii was from minimal to non existant.not even a landfall occur ::Gil 0% fa-fa-fai-fai-fail,fail fail ::Henriette:0% No my dear you are staying with the other 7 names that have been use,better luck next time. ::Ivo 0% and one of the worst and scariest name of the list was an EPIC FAIL. ::Juliette. 1% for the person dead but I should give her a 0% another fail ::Kiko 0% It challenge the NHC in intensity but nothing more.He is staying ::Lorena 1% And the failings in this basin continues ::Manuel.55% I would put it at 80% but knowing Mexico he might very well stay after what happen with Karl and Alex was unexcusable.If this stay I would be sad but no surprise nor shock.The rain it left over Guerrero are discribe as the worst ever record in the area.He needs to be gone,Its a toss up right now because of Mexico lack of retirements. ::CPAC ::Pewa 0% ::Unala 0% ::Allanjeffs 13:38, August 1, 2013 (UTC) # Barbara 3% aint gonna happen # Erick 1% Should go, but no # Flossie 20% Actually, it has a better chance than some of you think. Hawaii requested Daniel 06 and Kenneth 05 after r all. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 22:36, August 18, 2013 (UTC) And they were still not retire,if Agatha that kill hundreds didn`t go there is no excuse for Flossie to leave.Allanjeffs 16:33, August 19, 2013 (UTC) Actually, Allan, that is not exactly true. The EPAC is the basin the WMO randomly retires names from. Alma was retired, but not Agatha. They retired Ismael, but not Norbert or Jimena. They retired Kenna, but not Liza, Madeline, or Lane. They retired Pauline, but not Tara. AndrewTalk To Me 18:07, August 19, 2013 (UTC) : Some retirements from the WMO seem random for EPac, but Flossie's chances of retirement are still slim. Just because some random names like Fefa of 1991 were retired doesn't mean Flossie will be. I have doubts it will happen, but it's not impossible. 'Ryan1000' 21:08, August 19, 2013 (UTC) : Alma was retire because it caused heavy damage in Nicaragua,Costa Rica and my country (Honduras) damage was considerable in two of the three.Ismael,Kenna and Pauline all have make a lot of damage,and the ones you mention shouls have been retire too.I will add Rick the same year as pauline many in Mexico suffer more than him than with Pauline and still was not retire.I believed Fefa was retired because it means something in Hawaiian or other language that means something for them,like what happen with Israel and Adolph.Allanjeffs 12:43, August 20, 2013 (UTC) ::: Fefa could've been retired for being a threatening storm for Hawaii, like Hawaii nominated Daniel '06 and Kenneth '05, but unlike Fefa, they were turned down retirement. Alma caused some damage in parts of Central America, but the damage Alma caused was clearly much less than Agatha of 2010 and even Aletta of 1982 (which didn't make landfall) but neither of them were retired while Alma was. Some of them should've been retired, I disagree that Rick was that bad for Mexico although it was immensely powerful, but storms like Tara 1961, and Kathleen/Liza/Madeline of 1976 should've been retired, but they weren't. Tico of 1983 and/or Lidia and Norma of 1981 were also snubs to an extent. 'Ryan1000' 21:52, August 20, 2013 (UTC) ::: Agatha was not retire because it was not nominate by Guatemala,Alma was retire because Honduras and Nicaragua are more loosely in retirement as they do so more than Guatemala.So they may have ask for the name.Paul should have retired too but I understand it wasn`t because it was only a td when affecting El Salvador.I am not sure if a td that kill thousands or hundreds can be retire after affecting a country can be retire later when they become a ts and don`t affect another landmass.Allanjeffs 01:15, August 21, 2013 (UTC) ::: Post-season changes Alvin has a TCR, and upped to 60 mph.--Isaac829 03:20, August 8, 2013 (UTC) : 2nd southernmost TC on record for EPac, behind 1983's Adolph. 'Ryan1000' 12:30, August 8, 2013 (UTC) ::: Barbara's is out, not much is new. 'Ryan1000' 06:10, August 16, 2013 (UTC) ::::It was reassessed to be slightly stronger than operationally estimated, though. 70 kts/983 mbar is the new peak intensity, versus the 65 kt/990 mbar operational peak. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 17:54, August 19, 2013 (UTC) ::::(Erick) was a remanent low six hours earlier and it its pressure was dropped from 984 to 983.Allanjeffs 21:12, August 28, 2013 (UTC) ::::Nothing's too special about Erick. It did kill two, however. AndrewTalk To Me 21:47, August 28, 2013 (UTC) :::::Cosme is out. Its pressure was lowered slightly from 981 mbar to 980 mbar, it became post-tropical while still at tropical storm strength, and it held on to hurricane status for 6 hours longer than operationally estimated in the ATCF file. Not much else has changed. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:57, September 26, 2013 (UTC) Replacement names Okay, I know this may be a little premature for me to start now, especially for an EPAC season, but Manuel has killed 83 people, more than Alma or Kenna ever did. I also understand Manuel primarily affected Mexico, was has a bad track record of retirement. However, neither of those excuses will stop me from starting to making this section. Here are my top 10 replacements for Manuel: #'Mario''' (on the PAGASA naming lists) #Maurice #Mort (was used in 1997 in the WPAC) #Martin (was used in 1997 in the SPAC) #Miguel (Spanish version of Michael, which is on the Atlantic List IV) #Maximino #Mateo #Modesto #Melchor #Macario Also, here are my top three picks for Flossie, if by some odd chance, Hawaii requests it for retirement: #'Faith' (used in 1947 and 1998 in the WPAC + 1966 in the Atlantic) #Flo (was the name of a monster typhoon in the WPAC in 1990) #Fauna If anyone else wants to suggest replacement names for Manuel, Flossie, or any of the other EPAC names this season, please feel free to do so. AndrewTalk To Me 01:52, September 21, 2013 (UTC) :Keep in mind that Mexico's most recent fatality snub, Alex '10, killed as many as 73 people, and Manuel has beaten that number. I think that the reason Manuel may get away with it is less because it's Mexico and more because it's EPAC, home to the Aletta '82, Tico '83 and Agatha '10 snubs. I think Mark would be a good name for a hurricane, but maybe not as a replacement for Manuel due to EPAC's focus on Spanish names, so I'll agree with Andrew's choice of Mario, with Mateo being a close second. Francesca could also be a good replacement for Flossie, but then again, it could be deemed too similar to Frances, which was retired from the Atlantic lists after the 2004 season. Faith, as also pointed out by Andrew above, may be better. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:52, September 21, 2013 (UTC) :The Epac that should use only spanish names should change Manuel to the following :Mario :Marco :Marcos :Manny (nickname for Manuel)but it they can change Rita with Rina then this one is possible :Martin :Mauricio :Miguel have a good chance imo :Milton :Mateo which should have been the retirement for Mitch. :Allanjeffs 06:24, September 21, 2013 (UTC) Dylan, Francesca was previously used in the EPAC in 1966, 1970, and 1974, but I agree it is a little similar to Frances and therefore not get used. Allan, Marco is already on Atlantic List VI (remember this puny guy?). Marcos could be used, considering Marie, on Pacific List VI, and Maria, on Atlantic List III, are both on the Atlantic/Pacific naming lists right now. AndrewTalk To Me 11:33, September 21, 2013 (UTC) Uh, uh, uh, here they are! *'Malik ' *'Mancel ' *'Maron ' *'Marques ' *'Martel ' *'Marvin ' *'Michael ' *'Mikal ' *'Montel ' *'Montell ' *'Montez' *Mason *Miguel *Miguelito *Mario I got these M names from Name Yo Baby. Like any of them? And here are the name replacements for Flossie, should Hawaii kick her out! Fajah Fawn Francelle And now from NameYoBaby! Anyway, sorry for the tables being extremely long, but in my opinion, the replacement name does not need to be within the same language (Portugese and English = Manuel and Flossie.) Like for example, Ivan (Russian) -> Igor (Russian) -> Ian (English), Hugo (English) -> Humberto (Italian), Rita (English) -> Rina (Hindu), Iris (English) -> Ingrid (Swedish). HAHA, the fun has been doubled! 19:32, September 21, 2013 (UTC) Yes, replacement names do not need to be in the same origin as their predesscor (e.g. Luis - Lorenzo). Anything not related to Michael/Matthew/Mitch/Marco/Marty/Max would be fine for Manuel, and anything not related to Fefa/Felicia/Fernanda/Fran/Frances/Flora/Florence/Fiona/Fifi would be fine for Flossie. I would prefer a Spanish name for Manuel, but the WMO has proven to chose almost anything for a retiree's replacement. AndrewTalk To Me 20:45, September 21, 2013 (UTC) Geez, these tables are sooo long. But anyway, here are my top 10 replacements: Manuel #Mateo #Mario #Marcos #Maurice #Miguel #Martin #Melchor #Modesto #Marcel #Matthias I don't think Flossie will be retired, but here are my top 5 replacements for Flossie: Flossie #Flora #Fatima #Fallon #Francine #Flavia [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 01:08, September 22, 2013 (UTC) : I'm not expecting Flossie to be retired, but if it is by some random chance, I'd replace it with Flora. And it's not premature to begin this now Andrew, Manuel has a pretty decent chance of retirement, and even if it's only one name, it's enough to discuss replacement names for it (like Isaac of last year in ATL). I'd pick Mateo for Manuel, knowing it's a Spanish name and a pretty popular one. And Dylan, don't forget Tara 1961 and Liza 1976 snubs on Mexico's behalf. :( Their retirement track record really is poor. Ryan1000 01:12, September 24, 2013 (UTC) ::I agree that Tara and Liza should have been retired, but I only mentioned names from the current naming rotation to stick on the safe side, since the only retired names are from 1982 (Iwa) onwards. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:55, September 24, 2013 (UTC)